Monday, January 28, 2008

Florida Primary Preview - Could Thompson put Romney over the top?

It looks like a dead heat between McCain and Romney for tomorrow's Florida primary. Recently Fred Thompson pulled out of the race and top advisor Lynn Cheney moved over to the Romney camp, which has been endorsed by Thompson.

Before pulling out Thompson had some die hard supporters to the tune of about 7-8%. If 40-50% of those go for Romney (It's not likely many will go for McCain) that could be enough to break the tie. That's critical in this winner-take-all state.

As I pointed out earlier, absentee ballots are going to be a big factor. But Rudy's so far behind I no longer think they will help him, and McCain wasn't scoring bit in the polls when most of those votes were cast.

Also, it's a Republican only primary. No independents allowed in this one. Many Republicans are still not confident that McCain has sincere convictions on issues like lower taxes and less regulation. He has a tendancy to comprimise on things the party faithful would rather not comprimise on.

It could be a very big day for the Romney campaign and the final day for the Guilliani campaign.

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