Thursday, January 3, 2008

Iowa Caucus Results vs Predictions

All righty then. How'd I do with my pre-caucus predictions. Nailed one, Missed one.

On the Republican side, I predicted the religious right would turn out big for Huckabee and they did. A whopping 60% of those surveyed entering the caucuses identified themselves at evangelical or born-again Christians. I said Huckabee would run away with it and he did.

Obama was a complete surprise, as was Edwards. Edwards has been campaigning in Iowa for about four years. What he demonstrated in the caucuses was that given several years to build an organization and shake every hand in the state, he can finish in the top three. Hmmmm...., maybe time to make a career path adjustment.

Obama, on the other hand, is a newbie in national presidential politics. He has obviously put together a great organization. Hats off to him for that. I said I wouldn't be surprised to see him come in third. I'm quite surprised, and impressed. Although, in my own defense, the mind of the liberal voter is something I can only speculate about. I'll have to continue my research. Obama may have been helped out by the same voting block as Huckabee, the religious. In my opinion, Obama has been much more up front about his religion and seems comfortable talking about it.

The conclusion: The religious are going to be a major force in this primary and general election. Should be fun to watch.

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