Monday, July 14, 2008

Got Your Crash Helmets On?

Oil is still hovering around its all time high. Gold, Silver, Copper, other commodities still going strong.

Money has come out of equities and into commodities, which, ironically, will eventually depress demand for those commodities.

How does the market usually wind down such a situation? Well, money doesn't just have to come off the table or shift into different sectors. It has to go to "money heaven".

Before a significant turn-around takes place, look for the market to make up its mind that there's no good money to be had anywhere. The commodity bubble must finally burst. Stocks, oil, gold, silver, copper, all coming down substantially at the same time. All those accounting entries listed as "cash or cash equivalent" being dramatically reduced without an offsetting entry in another asset column.

Housing held up unusually long before that bubble finally burst. Commodities have done the same. The length of the cycle may have changed, but the nature hasn't. The contrarian thing to do would be to go into cash and wait for the inevitable capitulation. Experts will tell you the dollar is down and there's no reason to think it's going up any time soon. I think, given what I believe will happen to the dollar's alternatives soon, cash will be king again. Be in a position to take advantage of the bargains.

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